How to Adjust to Equity Shifts

Before the endgame, the Gods have placed the middle game.

- Siegbert Tarrasch

In our previous section, we explored hand-reading and the significance of assigning our opponents a range of hands. Now, in "How to Adjust to Equity Shifts," we delve into the vital concept of poker hand equity and its impact on turn strategy.

Join us as we uncover how equity shifts shape your decisions and enhance your game!

Our poker hand equity refers to the odds our hand wins at showdown. Our range, as well as our opponent’s also has equity equal to the average of the equities of the hole-cards defining those ranges.

When beginners start learning poker, many wonder how to calculate poker hand equity or equities of entire ranges. While some shortcuts exist, like applying the rule of four/two to draws, professional players rely on off-table work with poker tools.

Equity calculators and range visualizers give us precise numbers so we can learn and memorize poker hand equity for each type of holding. Pros know how much equity sets, two-pair, top-pair, draws, combo-draws, etc have on the turn.

These probabilities have a massive impact on turn strategy. Knowing our odds allows us to adapt our turn strategy in real time.

When the turn hits, typically one of two scenarios materializes. Our poker hand equity either gets a noticeable boost, or tables turn completely.

Consider

against on a board. AK’s equity goes from 63% to 80% on a brick turn card like . However, when club draws complete, AK’s equity drops to 0%, save for an or which offer 9% of hope when rivers give AK a full-house.

In short, the turn clarifies who’ll likely win at showdown. These equity shifts, which inch ranges closer to 100%/0% victory odds, profoundly impact our choices of whether to bet, and how much on the turn.

One of the most significant insights from solver study that has influenced online poker strategy is the strategic use of the overbet. While certain flops theoretically encourage bets exceeding the size of the pot, these large wagers are far more prevalent in turn play.

We can all agree there isn’t anything sexier in poker than a big overbet.

- Upswing Poker

As discussed in previous installments, the value portion of a player’s range wants to get stacks in. Large bets, especially in high SPR situations, help achieve that end.

On turns, when one range sways closers to a sure win, a reason to bet large opens. Professional players leverage these situations to both extract value and bluff. Huge bets increase the pot-odds needed to continue while decreasing MDF.

For example, in a SRP between button and big-blind on a

[2c]] flop that gets c-bet and called, and an on the turn were button has a wide nut-advantage, solvers prefer overbetting the turn.

In real-world scenarios, betting large here likely earns more than optimal because most players tend to overfold facing such pressure.

Most turn cards infuse more certainty to the hand. It’s easier to see who’s more likely to win at showdown. Strategically, this allows savvy players to increase the likelihood of stacking off with good hands by manipulating the pot size.

Turns that strengthen ranges already ahead on the flop allow those ranges to bluff more often. However, scary turns that flip advantages let intelligent players pump the breaks, even with solid holdings to prevent unfavorable stack-offs.

Proper off-table training and in-game instincts allow professionals to find the most profitable decision on fourth street.

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The following links are recommended resources related to this section’s theme. Don’t stay in doubt--dive in! 🔔

• Betting: Discover how to bet like a professional poker player.
• Ranges: Learn how to calculate & use poker ranges.
• Pot Odds: Learn how to calculate pot odds for online poker.
• MDF: Learn how to use the minimum defense frequency in poker.
• Discord Community: Join the coolest poker community, don’t be shy! Use it to ask questions and interact with other poker enthusiasts and professionals.